您的当前位置:首页 > 宏观研究 > Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut 正文
时间:2025-07-03 15:41:59 来源:网络整理 编辑:宏观研究
ArthurHayes,ChiefInvestmentOfficerofMaelstromandco-founderofBitMEX,statedattheToken2049conferenceinS
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
其他应交款在资产负债表中如何列示2025-07-03 15:50
10月31日汇添富低碳投资一年持有混合C净值下跌0.34%,近1个月累计下跌2.12%2025-07-03 15:44
比特大陆钱包2025-07-03 15:37
10月31日嘉实低碳精选混合发起式A净值增长0.03%,近3个月累计上涨14.31%2025-07-03 15:25
二手房公积金贷款申请流程是怎样的?想要了解一下。2025-07-03 15:21
10月31日嘉实策略视野三年持有期混合净值下跌0.23%,近1个月累计下跌0.85%2025-07-03 15:07
10月31日前海开源盛鑫混合C净值下跌0.60%,今年来累计下跌4.37%2025-07-03 14:27
歌词什么什么雾霾2025-07-03 14:16
10月31日华富竞争力优选混合C净值增长1.15%,近3个月累计上涨16.84%2025-07-03 14:01
10月31日东方阿尔法优势产业混合C净值增长1.11%,近6个月累计上涨18.46%2025-07-03 13:34
各种虚拟币价格2025-07-03 15:36
10月31日长城久嘉创新成长混合C净值增长1.45%,近3个月累计上涨29.82%2025-07-03 15:28
TRON 的下一步走势取决于突破 0.28 美元——TRX 多头准备好冲锋了吗?2025-07-03 15:08
缴纳个人所得税会计分录怎么做2025-07-03 14:45
比特币行情图总结-比特币行情图表2025-07-03 14:30
天津上市股票-天津上市股票一览表2025-07-03 14:26
个体户经营所得能扣专项扣除吗2025-07-03 14:00
Swap to the Future:OKX 与 Uniswap 探索 CeFi 与 DeFi 的发展未来2025-07-03 13:58
波卡币走势行情2025-07-03 13:43
10月31日富国医药创新股票A净值下跌1.01%,近1个月累计下跌4.68%2025-07-03 13:41